It is a relief that Dr. Cairo Ojougbo and Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa have made peace with each other. Peace in whatever form it comes is always welcome.  But we must advise caution. It is important for Ika people, especially in Ika South, not to expect much from this peace treaty.  

In our opinion, the two protagonists in this infamous Ika political drama took to this path of peace because it is politically expedient for them.  They both seem to have come to the realization that their political images and standings have become casualties of the on-going political show-down and it became expedient for them to accept a cease fire. Ika land has suffered of course, but the patience of our land is known to last for centuries. It out lasts all political intrigues.

When the followers and supporters of Dr. Cairo Ojougbo and Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa called for a peace treaty, they had all realized that it was the only way to save their dwindling political clouts and careers. The calculations of these political actors are correct. If this treaty was called one year ago, Neither Dr. Cairo Ojougbo nor Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa would have accepted. They could have cared less.

So what forced their hands? The answer to this will be found in what each of the actors and their followers have calculated as gains from this peace treaty.

So, what does Dr. Okowa gain from this?

Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa has for years meddled and ignored Ika South. Meddeled and ignore? Yes. Some keen observers argue that just to show Dr. Cairo Ojougbo who the boss is, he used his political genius to shackle and then watched Ika South slide back into a developmental middle-ages of sorts. Countless instances and stories are cited by these observers of how he did this. Whatever the fact is, Dr. Okowa has cared less to dispel this insinuation and suspicion that has festered in the minds of the people of Ika South. He felt invincible and expected no blow-back effect. As the Secretary to the State Government, Dr. Okowa controls immense political power that could have benefited the entire Ika land if he wanted. It should be understood that the position of the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) is a very powerful position. This is a position that was once occupied by the current State Governor Uduaghan before becoming the State Governor.

Current calculations and understanding of PDP arrangement dictates that since the next Delta State governor will most likely come from Delta North senatorial district, barring any surprises, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa is best positioned to run for governorship of Delta State on behalf of PDP. But there is one problem. Our sources tell us that it is already common knowledge in Asaba that Okowa’s political legitimacy in Ika land is only firm in Ika North East. This of course has made him a laugh whenever he talks about representing the Ika ethnic group.  There is word in Asaba that the State Governor no longer knows who to listen to on behalf of the entire Ika land. Ika political representatives in Asaba have talked each other down to a point of outright undermining their own legitimacy. For these politicians, things have certainly fallen apart.

So Dr. Ifeanyi  Okowa, in our analysis, is now realizing that his inability to ensure and secure the firm support of Ika South people, not just his PDP faction in Ika South, could cost him the support of other ethnic groups in Delta State who cannot trust the leadership of a man who has coldly divided his own ethnic group. If he can ruthlessly ignore the development of his own people and calculatingly mitigated their progress, what will he not do to those that are not his people?

With the signs beginning to appear on the wall, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa sees the need to make peace with Ika South by burying the hatchet with Dr. Cairo Ojougbo and then use the next three years to present himself as the true champion and political father of Ika Land. But there is one problem. Can good thinking people of Ika South forgive him for allowing Ika South to developmentally slide back into the middle ages?

Finally, this peace treaty will allow Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa to talk Dr. Cairo Ojougbo into staying away from the PDP Governorship race after Governor Uduaghan’s second term, allowing only Okowa to run. It should not be forgotten that Ojougbo’s participation on the 2006 PDP Gubernatorial primaries may have led to Okowa’s losing to Uduaghan.  It is clear that Ojougbo can still spoil it for Dr. Okowa unless this peace treaty holds.

 

What does Dr. Ojougbo gain from this peace treaty?

Dr. Cairo Ojougbo has become such a polarizing political figure whose political growth, at this point, could be said to be full of ironies. He has grown into a very powerful force in Abuja. He currently occupies the position of a presidential adviser to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on National Assembly matters. One major irony of his situation is that he has not been able to translate the power he wields in Abuja to Ika land. Just like Okowa, he seems unable to convince all the entire Ika people that he is representing them in the seat of power. Political observers are still struggling to identify any meaningful project he attracted to Ika land or Agbor Kingdom during his period as an Honourable member of the Federal House Representatives representing Ika. Worse still, observers have been quick to point out that the developmental woes in Ika South and Agbor kingdom in particular, from where he comes, have piled upon incrementally just as his political fortunes improved in Abuja in the last three years. It is strongly argued in certain quarters that part of the political mess in Ika South, if we skip all niceties, is due to his inability to decisively defeat Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and his followers a convincing victory in the power struggle within Ika South PDP. For a man with such influence in Abuja to get stuck in unending wrestling match with village (or State) political champions and not win decisively speaks volumes. Him and Dr. Okowa have politically bled each other out as they struggled for supremacy that is nowhere in sight. In the end, they found themselves limping on one leg each thereby needing each other’s support to be able to stand still.

Chatters in Abuja reveal that Dr. Cairo Ojougbo has two major plans for his future.  The first, just like Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, is to become the next Delta State Governor after Uduaghan. The second is to become a Minister in the future federal cabinet.

Dr. Cairo Ojougbo’s situation is similar to that of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa. Infact, on the state level he shares the same political ambition with Okowa. He may be thinking that if doubts arise about Okowa and should Okowa be unable to win support, he might clinch the PDP governorship candidacy for Ika land and Delta North Senatorial district. This is a long shot. But should he be in a position to fly the governorship flag for PDP Delta North Senatorial district, he will need the help of Okowa to fill the gaps on the state level.  He may have the Abuja influence but there is doubt as to how much influence he commands on state level. Closer home, Dr. Cairo Ojougbo is not seen by people of Ika North East as representing them. Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa has done well for them. It will be difficult to see how Ika North East, especially people of Owa Kingdom, can throw support behind someone who may have cost their son the opportunity to rule the state. It becomes difficult to see how Dr. Cairo Ojougbo can be seen to represent the entire Ika ethnic group.

Dr. Cairo Ojougbo is well aware that the political feud with Okowa has hurt him politically. In the present calculation, if the situation ever presents itself, there is no way Governor Uduaghan can nominate him for a ministerial position unless he makes up with Dr. Okowa. In the short term, if the peace treaty holds, Dr. Ojougbo might reap the reward after the next election in 2011. In the long run, say in five years, if Dr. Okowa clinches the position of the Governor of Delta state, Dr. Ojougbo will have the possibility of being nominated for a ministerial position. So here is a win-win situation that makes the peace treaty attractive. Of course, Dr. Okowa would prefer Dr. Caro Ojougbo in Abuja.

What does Ika land gain from this peace treaty?

Some peace and quiet would be appreciated by Ika people for a change. Our analysis is that not much will change for Ika land but we can only hope it does. We can only hope that while Dr. Cairo Ojougbo and Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa are peacefully busy with their personal interests the law of unintended consequence will set in. The unintended consequence being that Ika South will be left alone and through the process of natural growth it will emerge from the middle ages where both men have relegated it. We are hoping that both men will prove our pessimism wrong.

Perhaps the most potent question is if this peace treaty will hold. We hope it does.

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